Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all temperature outcomes at 0% probability on Polymarket, reflecting either a technical settlement issue or minimal liquidity in this particular contract. Traders holding conditional tokens tied to specific temperature bands would need to deposit USDC on Polygon and wait until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, when Wunderground's historical data for the airport station becomes the binding resolution source.

Seattle's May temperatures typically range between 60°F and 75°F, though the city experiences considerable variability. Historical data from the past decade shows May 24 specifically has seen highs between 62°F and 79°F, with an average around 70°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no active traders have positioned themselves yet or the market lacks sufficient depth to generate meaningful price discovery. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket tend to see activity spike closer to the settlement date as forecasts solidify.

The National Weather Service Pacific Northwest office publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with meaningful updates arriving around mid-May. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and upper-atmosphere ridge positioning will determine whether May 24 trends toward the cooler or warmer end of Seattle's typical spring range. Traders should monitor the NWS forecast evolution and any unusual atmospheric patterns developing in late April, as these drive the conditional token valuations closer to resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.