Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is the real-world event this market resolves, with the current Polymarket contract pricing the YES outcome at 0% despite the settlement window closing just hours after the date. On-chain mechanics mean traders hold conditional tokens on Polygon, settling in USDC, and the market’s frontrunner is the 64–65°F range at 68% probability, followed by 66–67°F at 19% [1]. This distribution reflects July’s typical moderate climate in the region, where daytime highs average up to 26°C (79°F) but often dip lower due to coastal influence and frequent breezy conditions averaging 12 km/h [2].

Historically, Seattle’s mid-July highs rarely exceed 80°F, with most days clustering between 70–75°F; the current 0% YES price likely stems from a misaligned binary framing rather than genuine disbelief in any heat, as the market actually resolves to a temperature range, not a single threshold. Comparable cases from recent summers show that even during mild heatwaves, KSEA Station records stay within the 60–70°F band, aligning with the 68% confidence in 64–65°F [1][2]. Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history page for the official resolution, as it is the sole source, and watch for any late July weather bulletins from the National Weather Service that might signal anomalous heat, though such events are uncommon in Seattle’s climate profile [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.