Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 is the real-world event driving this Polymarket contract, which currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0% despite the market resolving to a specific temperature range. On-chain, traders are using USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens tied to outcomes like 80–81°F, which the crowd now favours at 40%, while 78–79°F sits at 30% [1]. This pricing reflects a sharp divergence between the binary “YES” label and the granular temperature ranges that actually determine settlement.

Historically, mid-July highs at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) rarely breach 80°F, with most years clustering between 75–79°F; the 40% weight on 80–81°F suggests the crowd anticipates a rare heat spike, possibly linked to inland pressure patterns that push warmer air toward the coast. The 0% price on the binary “YES” contract likely stems from a mismatch in how the market interprets the resolution condition versus the actual temperature ranges offered, rather than a belief that no heat will occur.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the Bay Area, particularly any alerts for elevated temperatures or offshore wind shifts that could amplify heat. Wunderground’s daily KSFO history page will be the official resolution source, so real-time updates there on 14 July will directly impact token values [1]. No formal announcements are expected before settlement, but sudden changes in the forecast schedule could trigger rapid re-pricing of the conditional tokens.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.