Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on 9 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with long-term averages suggesting daytime peaks near 31°C under high heat and humidity[1]. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, indicating the market believes the threshold in question is unlikely to be breached, despite climatology supporting such highs in early July[8].

Historical data shows Qingdao’s July maximums typically reach 31°C, though coastal marine influence often moderates extremes, making 31°C a genuinely contested threshold rather than a certainty[1][8]. Similar markets, such as the July 7 peak temperature contract, priced 25°C at 26%, reflecting how tightly single-degree thresholds are evaluated in this region[5].

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in marine cloud cover or wind patterns that could suppress temperatures[8]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs ranging from 77°F to 89°F (25°C–32°C), with the average high at 83°F (28°C), underscoring the volatility around the 31°C mark[3]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: USDC on Polygon, conditional tokens determining payout, with settlement finalising at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.