Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Market context

On 23 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature brackets, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a technical lag in price discovery on Polygon. This contract trades in USDC conditional tokens, settling to whichever range captures the actual peak temperature once the settlement window closes at midday UTC on 23 May.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget provide the baseline for calibrating expectations. The station's May records show typical highs between 18–22°C, though heat waves have pushed readings above 25°C in recent years. May 2022 saw a European heat event that elevated Paris temperatures notably; conversely, cooler springs have produced highs around 15–17°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this contract or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts closer to the resolution date, which remains over a year away.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather pattern forecasts released in April and early May 2026, particularly Atlantic ridge positioning and any high-pressure systems developing over continental Europe. The UK Met Office and Météo-France typically issue extended outlooks 10–14 days before the event; these will be the primary catalysts for price movement. Seasonal climate indices, including the North Atlantic Oscillation phase in spring 2026, may also influence whether May settles warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.