Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either a technical issue with the market interface or that traders have not yet begun positioning ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. Resolution will depend on historical weather data from Wunderground, pulling the daily maximum from the official station records.

Paris experiences typical early-summer conditions in June, with average highs around 23–24°C, though heat waves occasionally push temperatures into the low 30s. The city recorded 25.9°C on 2 June 2023 and 26.5°C on 2 June 2024, establishing a recent baseline. Historical extremes for early June at Le Bourget include peaks above 30°C during anomalous warm spells, most notably during the 2022 European heat wave when June temperatures across northern France exceeded seasonal norms significantly.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atmospheric patterns favouring high-pressure systems over western Europe in early June would shift probability towards higher temperature bands. The settlement mechanism requires manual verification against Wunderground's historical archive, so traders should confirm the data source remains accessible and unchanged before the window closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.