Highest temperature in Paris on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 6 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, which currently prices the "YES" range at 0% probability. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, betting that the temperature will fall within a specific Celsius bracket. The market resolves based on Wunderground data for the Paris-Le Bourget station, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026.

Historical context suggests extreme caution is warranted when interpreting the 0% price. France recently experienced its hottest day ever on 23 June 2026, with Paris reaching 40.3°C and regional highs hitting 44.3°C in Landes[2][4]. A second heatwave is projected for Paris starting mid-week, with forecasts predicting highs of 37°C (99°F) on 3–4 July, just days before the settlement date[1][7]. Climatologists note that while precise predictions beyond 10 days are impossible, temperatures in July are very likely to remain high, often 2–3°C above normal[2].

Traders should monitor Météo-France’s daily red heatwave alerts and the arrival of cooler western air, which is expected to struggle to reach eastern France until Monday or Tuesday[2][3]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the heatwave across eastern France, where intense heat continues through the weekend with daytime highs around 40–42°C[2]. Any deviation from the forecasted 37°C peak for early July could significantly alter the probability, as the current 0% price appears to ignore the recent record-breaking thermal activity and the confirmed second heatwave approaching the settlement date[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.