Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range settles this Polymarket contract. The current crowd pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or illiquidity in the order book at present. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, with the USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon resolving once the settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date.

Paris experiences peak summer heat in late July, with historical records showing temperatures regularly exceeding 25°C and occasionally reaching 30°C or higher during heatwaves. The city's record high stands at 42.6°C, set in August 2003 during the catastrophic European heatwave. July averages typically range between 15–26°C, though variability is substantial year-on-year. Le Bourget Airport's location on the northern outskirts means readings may run slightly cooler than central Paris measurements, a material distinction for traders positioning across the temperature bands.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting from mid-July 2026 onwards, particularly Météo-France's extended outlook and any Atlantic pressure systems that might drive continental heat northward. The North Atlantic Oscillation and sea-surface temperature anomalies in June will signal whether conditions favour a warm or temperate July. Any significant heatwave warnings issued by French authorities in the fortnight before 24 July would shift expectations materially, though such forecasts remain unreliable beyond ten days. Historical volatility in July temperatures means wide ranges should command meaningful probability mass rather than clustering at single outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.