Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, with the market now pricing a 26°C outcome at 92% probability while the 27°C+ range sits at just 7%. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where the current crowd-implied probability for any outcome above 26°C is effectively zero, reflecting a strong consensus that extreme heat is unlikely for this specific date.

Historical July temperatures in Paris typically hover between 20°C and 28°C, with 26°C representing a common mid-range peak rather than an outlier; comparable days in recent summers, such as July 2023 and 2024, frequently saw maxima near this threshold without breaching 27°C unless a prolonged heatwave was active. The current 0% probability for higher ranges aligns with the absence of any recorded heatwave advisories for mid-July 2026 in the region, suggesting the atmosphere lacks the sustained pressure systems needed to push temperatures significantly higher.

Traders should monitor daily meteorological updates from Météo-France and real-time data feeds on Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could alter the day’s maximum. A recent forecast from Meteo France indicates stable, partly cloudy conditions for Paris on 17 July, with no extreme heat warnings issued as of this week, reinforcing the market’s low probability for higher temperature brackets [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.