Highest temperature in Paris on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will experience its peak heat for 14 July 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, with the market now pricing the outcome as a specific Celsius range. On Polymarket, the contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s view that a temperature above the current threshold is virtually impossible, implied by the 0% YES probability for the binary outcome. The frontrunner is 34°C at 47%, closely trailed by 35°C at 43%, indicating traders expect mid-thirties heat rather than extreme highs.

Historically, mid-July in Paris often sees temperatures between 30°C and 36°C, with 2022 and 2023 both recording peaks near 35°C on or around 14 July. The current 0% probability for the YES outcome suggests the market believes the temperature will fall below the settlement trigger, aligning with recent years where heatwaves peaked slightly earlier or later in the month. This pattern frames the low probability not as an anomaly but as a reflection of typical seasonal variance.

Traders should monitor the Meteo France daily forecast and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Paris-Le Bourget, as these are the definitive resolution sources. A sudden shift in the European heat index or an official announcement of a heatwave could alter pricing, though no such alerts have been issued as of today. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July 2026, meaning final data from Wunderground will lock the outcome regardless of late-afternoon fluctuations.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.