Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the board is effectively treating a qualifying outcome as out of reach today. That is a striking read for a one-day weather market settled on the **highest temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport**, because the position is resolved on the Wunderground daily history page and pays out through Polymarket’s usual **USDC on Polygon** conditional-token mechanics rather than by any broader Paris weather average.

The historical frame is unhelpful for a zero-price view: Paris in August normally sits in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with forecast services placing typical daytime highs around **23–26°C** and some August days nearer **29°C** in the current outlook.[5][9][11] Against that background, traders usually see the main risk as a short-lived hot spell rather than a routine summer maximum. Recent European heat events have shown that France can still spike sharply, with Reuters reporting French weather agency expectations of record-high temperatures during June’s 2026 heat wave and Paris itself reaching **40.9°C** in that period.[18][14]

For market watchers, the relevant catalysts are the **same-day forecast updates**, any late changes in **Météo-France** guidance, and whether cloud, rain, or wind suppress the afternoon high at Le Bourget. The latest Paris forecast cited by local media pointed to **dry, sunny conditions around 29°C** on 5 August, which is comfortably above the seasonal average but far below the heatwave extremes that have moved French weather markets this year.[11][18] In practice, traders will be watching whether the station-specific reading can break out of the high-20s; if not, the current 0% pricing will likely remain anchored.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.