Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES today, which leaves the market treating a Paris afternoon high above the relevant threshold as effectively off the table on this settlement window. The event is a noon cut-off on 19 August 2026, so only the highest reading recorded by Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station up to 12:00 UTC matters for the outcome, and the daily observations table is the only source that counts.

That price sits against a mixed but broadly cooling weather setup. Recent forecasts for Paris put 19 August around the mid-20s Celsius, with some outlets showing 24–26°C and others pointing to a cooler, cloudier day with showers; that is a long way from the 30s that drove earlier August heat across France. Comparable late-summer Paris weather markets tend to stay pinned low unless a hot air mass is already locked in, because one cloudy, showery morning can cap the daily maximum well before the settlement cut-off.

For traders, the key catalysts are the final overnight and morning forecast updates, any shift in the timing of Atlantic disturbances over Île-de-France, and whether thunderstorms arrive early enough to suppress the daily high before noon. The main dependency is simple: the on-chain position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, but the outcome still lives or dies on the station observation published in Weather Underground’s daily observations table, not the summary high-and-low box.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.