Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine trader conviction. Resolution will depend on historical data from Weather Underground's LaGuardia station records, measured in Fahrenheit across the full calendar day.

New York's late May temperatures typically cluster between 75°F and 85°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching into the low 90s during warm years. The National Weather Service's 30-year average high for 30 May in the New York area sits around 78°F. May 2024 saw temperatures in the mid-80s across similar dates; May 2023 produced a high of 82°F on the 30th itself. These precedents suggest the most likely outcome falls in the 80–89°F range, though anomalous heat events—such as the 94°F reading on 28 May 2018—remain plausible though infrequent.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in April and early May 2026, particularly any signals of Atlantic ridge formation or tropical moisture advection. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center issues monthly outlooks that often flag temperature anomalies weeks in advance. Real-time catalysts include any significant upper-atmosphere blocking patterns or heat dome development in the week preceding settlement. Current zero pricing likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine probability assessment.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.