Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological certainty; the contract settles against Wunderground's historical data for that specific date, measured in Fahrenheit at the airport's official weather station. Traders are essentially pricing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon, where each temperature bracket represents a discrete outcome that will resolve to either 1.00 or 0.00 once the settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date.

New York's May weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical data from LaGuardia indicates May highs typically range between 72°F and 82°F, though the airport has recorded extremes as low as 58°F and as high as 91°F during the month across different years. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds, a common state for weather contracts far in advance. Early traders will face wide bid-ask spreads and thin order books until closer to the event date.

The principal catalyst for repricing will be seasonal forecasting updates from the National Weather Service and longer-range models, which typically gain predictive power within two to three weeks of the target date. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could influence May's temperature trajectory, as could any anomalous jet-stream positioning. Traders should monitor NOAA's monthly outlooks and any Atlantic hurricane precursor activity, which occasionally affects northeastern US weather patterns even before the official hurricane season.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.