Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES, reflecting the standard state of weather markets weeks before settlement—no conditional tokens have accumulated meaningful value because the event remains too distant for reliable pricing. The market resolves using Wunderground's historical data for that specific date, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on 7 June.

New York's June weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical data from LaGuardia indicates June highs typically range between 75°F and 85°F, though extremes have reached into the low 90s during heat waves. The 2019 heat wave pushed temperatures to 93°F in early June, whilst cooler Junes have seen highs near 70°F. These precedents matter for calibrating which temperature brackets represent genuine outliers versus baseline expectations. Current seasonal forecasts from NOAA, updated monthly, will provide the first substantive signal for traders as spring progresses.

The National Weather Service's extended forecasts become actionable roughly two weeks before the settlement date. Traders should monitor spring atmospheric patterns—particularly whether the jet stream positioning favours warm air masses moving northeast—and track any announced heat advisories in late May. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic influence June weather systems affecting the New York region, making late-May sea surface anomaly reports relevant catalysts. Until mid-May, this market will likely remain thinly traded with minimal price discovery.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.