Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at zero probability—a technical artefact reflecting minimal liquidity rather than genuine conviction that no temperature will be recorded. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which captures the daily maximum at this primary New York meteorological station. Traders are effectively betting conditional tokens against USDC on Polygon, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

New York's early June climate typically produces highs between 75°F and 85°F, though the range extends considerably wider. Historical data from 2015 to 2024 shows June 6th temperatures at LaGuardia varying from 68°F to 89°F, with most years clustering around 78–82°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient market depth to establish meaningful pricing or traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. June weather in the Northeast remains moderately volatile, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 90s, though such extremes on any specific date remain statistically uncommon.

The National Weather Service typically issues its extended forecast for early June around late May 2026, providing the first substantive catalyst for market repricing. Traders should monitor Atlantic weather patterns and any anomalous warming signals in late May forecasts. The market's current state reflects standard illiquidity for niche weather contracts rather than predictive information about atmospheric conditions eighteen months forward.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 6? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.