Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggesting traders believe the event is virtually impossible. On Polymarket, this contract is priced at 37% for the 81° to 82° range, reflecting on-chain liquidity in USDC on the Polygon network where conditional tokens are actively traded. The market resolves based solely on the final daily high from Weather Underground’s historical data for KLGA, once all observations for that date are complete and published.

Historical June data frames this low probability: AccuWeather’s 2026 forecast for New York shows daily highs ranging from 77° to 99°, with an average high of 88°, while Climate Data notes warmer days can reach 78.8°F. However, the 0% crowd-implied probability may stem from the specific 81°–82° bracket being narrower than the typical variance, or from recent Central New York conditions showing partly sunny skies with isolated showers and a high of 77°F on 26 June, as reported by Weather.com. This local coolness contrasts with the broader East Coast heatwave that hit 90°F in April, per The New York Times, but June 26’s specific microclimate appears to have moderated temperatures.

Traders should monitor the official Weather Underground KLGA data release, which triggers settlement once the first observation for 27 June is published, confirming all 26 June data are final. The CBS New York First Alert Weather report from 6.26.26 confirms a warm, humid Friday in the NYC area, yet the isolated showers noted by Weather.com may have capped the peak. No new announcements are expected, but the settlement dependency on the Weather Underground data table remains the critical catalyst; any delay in data publication could extend the resolution window beyond the 2026-06-26T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.