Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026 is currently priced by Polymarket as almost certainly falling within the 82–83°F bracket, with the market assigning a 99% probability to this outcome and a near-zero chance of the temperature exceeding 85°F. This pricing reflects a mild airmass with limited warm advection, positioning the event firmly in the lower end of typical June highs for New York City.

Historical June averages for New York City show daytime maximums typically reaching 26°C (79°F), with long-term data indicating highs ranging from 75°F to 92°F and an average high of 85°F [4][6]. Recent weather patterns in early June 2026 saw temperatures surge to 87°F on 5 June, driven by southerly winds scooping up warm air, though a cold front subsequently introduced cooler conditions and thunderstorms [5]. The current market consensus of 82–83°F aligns closely with these seasonal norms, suggesting traders view the 24 June event as a return to average rather than an extreme heat spike.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climate data releases and any upcoming forecasts for the Northeast, particularly regarding cold front movements that could suppress temperatures below the 82°F threshold [8]. While no specific announcements for 24 June have been issued, the persistence of summery conditions in early June, with highs in the low 90s forecast for Philadelphia and Boston, indicates that heatwaves remain a potential catalyst if atmospheric patterns shift [5]. The on-chain mechanics of Polymarket, utilising USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens, ensure real-time price updates as traders adjust positions based on these evolving weather dependencies [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.