Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, a date historically prone to warm, humid conditions in New York City. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the highest bracket, suggesting traders believe extreme heat is unlikely despite early June 2026 seeing record surges elsewhere in the Northeast.

Historical precedents frame this low probability: typical June highs in NYC average 82°F, with the warmest single day in June usually falling on 26 June at 83.6°F. However, a powerful heat wave earlier in the month, with LaGuardia reaching 96°F on 4–5 June, demonstrates that extreme spikes are possible even in early summer. The current 0% pricing may overlook the volatility shown when heat indices hit 105°F during that surge, indicating the market could be underestimating outlier risk.

Traders should monitor the arrival of the frontal boundary forecast for late June, which may bring scattered thunderstorms and temporarily suppress temperatures, as noted in the week-ahead outlook from EPAWA. While seasonal temperatures are expected beyond Tuesday, the dependency on humidity levels and the potential for isolated severe weather south of the warm front could alter the daily high. A recent forecast from Meteorologist Steven DiMartino confirms the stormy nature of 22 June, suggesting rain and t-storms may cap the temperature below the highest bracket, reinforcing the current market stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.