Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the 21 June New York City heat contract through USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens tied to which Fahrenheit band contains the day’s peak reading at LaGuardia Airport Station. The market is currently at **0% YES**, which implies traders are assigning no weight to the listed range that would settle the event, even though the contract only resolves after Wunderground posts the day’s final high for that station.

That zero price sits in sharp contrast to the broader weather backdrop: late-June New York normally peaks around the low 80s Fahrenheit, and the city’s June 21 record high is 97°F, so a hot outcome is not intrinsically unusual. Recent comparable Polymarket temperature contracts have often concentrated heavily in a single band once a forecast pattern becomes clear, with June 20 pricing already showing a full consensus around 82–83°F, indicating traders have recently been willing to move quickly when the atmosphere supports it.

For a trader, the main catalysts are the official forecast track and any heat headlines affecting the New York metro into the afternoon window before the final Wunderground reading is locked in. The key dependency is not the citywide feel but the specific LaGuardia station observation, so airport-specific cloud cover, sea-breeze influence and timing of thunderstorms matter more than Manhattan conditions. The market cannot resolve until the first data point for the following day has been published on the source, so late updates and any revision to the daily high can still affect settlement even after the calendar day ends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.