Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "Yes" resolution sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract is priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where the narrow spread currently favours the 80–83°F range, while any delay in onshore flow or reduced insolation could cap readings near 79°F[1]. The market effectively treats the 86–87°F outcome as the frontrunner for the adjacent 8 July event, assigning it a 100% probability, which frames how traders interpret the extreme heat lingering into the night[1].

Historical precedents show that LaGuardia has recently shattered records, reaching 102°F on Thursday and setting a new midnight high of 94°F, breaking the 93°F record from July 2013[2]. This unprecedented heat persistence, with the airport recording its hottest midnight temperature ever at 94 degrees, suggests that the thermal mass will remain significant for the following day[5]. Such history has proven that heat can have a major impact on subsequent daily highs, making the current 0% probability for a "Yes" outcome potentially reflective of a market that has not yet fully adjusted to the intensity of the ongoing heatwave[7].

Traders should monitor announcements regarding onshore flow delays and insolation levels, as these are the primary catalysts that could cap or boost temperatures beyond the current spread[1]. The National Weather Service product for LGA indicates a sunrise maximum of 53°F for 9 July 2026, providing a baseline for the morning cooling before the day's peak[9]. With AAA reporting that over 71 million people are travelling during this East Coast extreme heat event, the sheer volume of traffic and associated urban heat may further influence the temperature readings at the airport[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.