Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City is expected to record its peak temperature for the day, with the market currently pricing a 4% chance that this figure exceeds the highest threshold in the defined range. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects a crowd-implied probability that such an extreme heat event is unlikely, despite the city currently enduring a dangerous heat dome.

Historical records show that 7 July has previously seen highs of 100°F in New York City, and recent data from July 2026 indicates daytime temperatures soaring into the upper 90s, with some afternoons reaching 100°F at LaGuardia, as noted by FOX Weather[2]. The current heat dome, which has settled over the city from 1 July to 7 July, is trapping hot air and creating relentless conditions, with experts warning of possible flash flooding and dangerous heat waves lasting days[1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates and any sudden shifts in the heat dome’s intensity, as heavy rain could arrive abruptly and alter temperature readings[1]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for LaGuardia, and any official advisories urging residents to limit outdoor activity during the hottest hours (11:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.) may signal peak conditions[1]. Recent forecasts suggest daily highs ranging from 71°F to 90°F, with an average of 85°F for July, but the current anomaly could push temperatures beyond this range[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.