Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market contract priced at 0% YES for the upper temperature range. This reflects the crowd’s current view that the day’s peak heat will fall well below the threshold needed to trigger a “YES” settlement, despite recent extreme heat events in the region.

Historical data frames this probability: LaGuardia hit 104°F on 2 July 2026 during a severe heat wave, surpassing its 1966 daily high of 101°F, while midnight temperatures reached a record 94°F on an earlier date in July 2013 [1][5]. Yet July 2026 forecasts suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows from 68°F to 83°F, indicating a likely cooldown compared to the early-July spike [6][8].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KLGA and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity that could alter peak temperatures [9]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s official daily high for LaGuardia, so real-time data feeds and weather model revisions—particularly those from AccuWeather and FOX Weather—will be critical catalysts [1][6]. No announcements are expected, but the market remains sensitive to on-chain liquidity movements in USDC on Polygon and conditional token pricing dynamics.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.