Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City is forecast to record a peak temperature near 98°F, with humidity pushing the heat index to 105°F or higher, marking a dangerous heatwave well above the long-term July average of 84°F. This extreme event frames the current 0% YES probability on the prediction market as a likely mispricing, given that historical precedents show LaGuardia has previously breached 100°F, including a record midnight temperature of 94°F in 2013 and a daily high of 102°F in 2025. The market, settled on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, currently prices the contract as if such highs are impossible, ignoring the tangible risk of record-breaking conditions driven by stagnant air and high moisture levels.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for any escalation in the heatwave, particularly the forecasted peak between noon and 5:00 p.m. when temperatures could soar further inland due to the lack of seabreezes. Recent alerts from weather forecasters indicate that areas away from the coast may see temperatures several degrees higher, with overnight lows stubbornly remaining above 80°F, preventing any cooling relief. The catalyst for a potential price correction lies in the confirmation of these extreme readings, as the current crowd-implied probability fails to account for the documented intensity of this July 2026 heatwave, which has already pushed neighbouring cities like Philadelphia and Boston toward triple digits.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.