Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a peak temperature on 27 July 2026, and Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at zero, indicating either minimal liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will settle. The market resolves based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. Traders holding conditional tokens on any temperature range face a binary outcome: the recorded high either falls within their selected band or it does not, with payouts denominated in USDC on Polygon.

New York's July temperatures typically cluster between 82°F and 88°F, though the city has experienced peaks above 95°F during heat waves. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that extreme outliers—temperatures exceeding 100°F in July—occur roughly once per decade in the metropolitan area. The 2019 heat wave pushed readings to 96°F on multiple days, whilst cooler Julys have seen highs remain in the low 80s. These historical ranges provide the baseline against which traders should calibrate their position sizing and probability assessments.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the Atlantic hurricane season and upper-level atmospheric patterns, which typically become clearer in late June 2026. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration publishes seasonal forecasts that traders can cross-reference with historical analogues. Jet stream positioning and any tropical systems approaching the Eastern Seaboard in late July would materially shift temperature expectations. Traders should monitor NOAA's monthly outlooks beginning in spring 2026 and track any significant weather systems developing in the week preceding the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.