Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Polymarket currently prices all outcomes at 0%, reflecting either a technical settlement issue or minimal liquidity across the conditional token pairs on Polygon. The market's USDC-denominated contracts will resolve based on historical data pulled from Weather Underground's daily records for that specific station, making the outcome deterministic once the date passes and the National Weather Service data becomes final.

New York City's July temperatures have historically ranged from highs in the mid-80s Fahrenheit to occasional peaks above 95°F during heat waves. The 30-year average high for late July sits around 84°F, though the city experienced consecutive days above 90°F in July 2022 and again in 2023. Traders should reference the National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks released in June 2026 and monitor Atlantic hurricane activity patterns, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, or conversely drive extreme heat if high-pressure systems dominate the Northeast corridor.

The primary catalyst will be the North Atlantic Oscillation and jet stream positioning in mid-July 2026. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard typically produces the warmest outcomes, whilst tropical systems or upper-level troughs can moderate temperatures significantly. Real-time weather model consensus from the GFS and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, available roughly 10 days before the settlement date, will provide the most actionable signal for traders positioning conditional token holdings before final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.