Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Polymarket prices the YES contract for this outcome at 0% today, reflecting a near-certain market consensus that the temperature will not fall within the specified range. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, trades with $35.3K volume, indicating active on-chain participation despite the zero probability assigned to the event[1][2].

Historical data frames this probability starkly: LaGuardia reached 101°F on 2 July 1966, and Newark Airport hit 103°F on the same date in 1901, establishing a precedent for extreme heat on this specific day[7]. Current July 2026 forecasts for LaGuardia show daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, with heat index values expected to reach 105–115 under an active extreme heat warning issued by the National Weather Service[3][5]. The 0% price suggests the market believes the threshold in question exceeds even these record-breaking conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s extreme heat warning updates and the official Weather Underground resolution data, which will publish the first data point for 2 July 2026 to trigger settlement[1][5]. The warning, effective until 9 PM EDT on Saturday, cites dangerously hot conditions with heat indices of 105–115, a critical dependency for any temperature spike[5]. Any deviation from the forecasted 81–99°F range, particularly if the warning intensifies, could alter the on-chain pricing dynamics before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 2 July 2026[3][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.