Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a weather contract priced on Polymarket today. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome on any specific range, yet the frontrunner is the 86–87°F bracket at 52%, with 88–89°F holding 30% [1]. This stark contrast between the zero-priced binary and the multi-outcome distribution suggests the contract is structured as a range-based resolution, not a simple yes/no bet, and traders are positioning on precise Fahrenheit intervals using USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens.

Historically, mid-July highs at KLGA cluster between 85°F and 92°F, with 86–87°F appearing frequently in the last decade of National Weather Service records [2]. The current 52% weighting on that range aligns with past patterns, while the 30% on 88–89°F reflects a modest heat spike expectation. A 0% price on a binary “YES” likely stems from a misaligned interface display or a default state before liquidity forms, rather than a genuine forecast of impossibility.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for the New York area, particularly any updates on high-pressure systems or humidity levels that could push temperatures above 90°F. Wunderground’s daily history page for KLGA will be the official resolution source, so real-time hourly data from that station on 17 July will be critical [1]. No major announcements are scheduled, but regional weather models updated daily by NOAA will serve as the primary catalyst for price movement in the coming days.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.