Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026, measured at LaGuardia Airport, will determine this weather contract’s outcome, yet the market currently prices the YES option at 0% despite the settlement window closing in hours. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens tied to specific Fahrenheit ranges, with “98–99°F” emerging as the frontrunner at 41% probability and “96–97°F” holding 20% [1]. This pricing reflects a crowd consensus that the temperature will fall outside the YES range defined in the market description, even as the day’s peak heat is still being recorded.

Historically, mid-July highs at LaGuardia often reach 95–100°F, with 98°F appearing frequently in recent summers, making the 98–99°F bracket a statistically plausible outcome [1]. The current 0% YES probability suggests traders believe the temperature will either stay below or exceed the YES threshold, but given the frontrunner’s dominance, the market is effectively betting the peak will land in the 98–99°F range rather than the YES condition’s unspecified bounds.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which publishes the day’s highest temperature for KLGA in near real time [1]. No external announcements or schedules influence this event; the sole dependency is the official temperature reading logged before 12:00:00Z on 16 July. As the clock ticks toward settlement, on-chain liquidity may shift rapidly if Wunderground’s live data diverges from the 98–99°F consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.