Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the 7 August New York City temperature contract as an overwhelmingly small event right now, with the crowd-implied probability sitting at **0% YES**. On this venue, traders are buying and selling **USDC**-settled positions on **Polygon**, with the contract ultimately resolving through conditional tokens against the **highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station** in the Weather Underground daily observations table, rather than the summary day high figure.[2]

The current reading needs to be judged against how New York summer temperatures usually behave: daily highs in the city often cluster in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, but the gap between boroughs and airports can matter when a market keys off a specific station. For this event, that means LaGuardia’s observed maximum is the decisive number, and late revisions can still change the outcome until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[2] A recent Weather Underground history page for New York shows a 91°F maximum on 7 August at a New York-area station, underlining that the market’s resolution source can diverge from broader city summaries and that single-site readings matter more than the headline “NYC” label.[1][3]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the afternoon observation cycle, any late station updates, and whether the final daily observations table is amended before rollover; those mechanics can move a contract even after the daytime peak has passed.[2] The key dependency is therefore not a citywide forecast, but the exact LaGuardia record in Wunderground’s daily table, which is why Polymarket prices can stay pinned near one outcome even when nearby forecasts shift modestly.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.