Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying there is no meaningful chance that LaGuardia’s highest reading on 6 August lands in the specified temperature band. The contract settles on the **daily maximum at LaGuardia Airport Station** as reported by Wunderground, and the final outcome is determined by the intraday high rather than the overall feel across New York City.[3]

That near-zero price sits against a summer climatology where New York’s early-August highs are usually in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, with the current forecast for 6 August also clustering around the high 80s. AccuWeather shows New York at **88°F/73°F** for 6 August, while USA Today reported a heat advisory for the city and surrounding region, with actual temperatures expected to peak in the **upper 80s and lower 90s** even as humidity pushed heat-index values far higher.[2][10] For a trader on Polymarket, that means the key question is not whether it will feel hot, but whether the observed airport maximum will print inside the contract’s exact band after the on-chain conditional tokens are resolved in USDC on Polygon.

The main catalysts are still late-day forecast updates, any shift in sea-breeze timing, cloud cover, or shower activity, and whether LaGuardia briefly runs warmer or cooler than central Manhattan. Because the market settles only on the Wunderground LaGuardia history page, traders should watch for the final hourly progression into the afternoon and early evening rather than citywide averages.[3] Once the Wunderground daily record is fixed, the on-chain payout is mechanical: conditional tokens resolve against that single verified reading, so even a small one- or two-degree miss can flip the result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.