Highest temperature in NYC on August 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at 0% for a YES outcome, so the market is effectively implying that NOAA will not post a qualifying LaGuardia high on 23 August. The on-chain position is settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the practical question for holders is whether the official hourly readings under NOAA’s KLGA timeseries ever print a maximum that lands inside the relevant temperature band before the settlement cut-off.

That 0% price sits against a live late-summer setup that can still move quickly if showers clear and sunshine breaks through, but the morning sequence already matters because the NOAA page had LaGuardia near 70–71°F with rain and thunderstorm activity early on 23 August. AccuWeather’s same-day outlook for LaGuardia pointed to a high around 84°F with an afternoon thunderstorm, which is enough to keep the realised maximum near the middle of the month’s typical August range rather than in an extreme band. The key read-through from comparable NYC weather markets is that a low initial price often reflects a narrow settlement window and the fact that the day’s true high usually arrives only once cloud cover, rain, and wind ease.

The main catalysts are straightforward: the evolution of the afternoon shower and thunderstorm timing, any abrupt clearing around midday, and whether NOAA’s LaGuardia observations print a higher hourly temperature before the first report for 24 August appears. Traders watching the contract need the official station feed, not city-wide averages, because settlement depends on the highest reading in NOAA’s “Temp” column at KLGA. Once the final pre-midnight readings are in, the path narrows sharply, and the last update on NOAA’s page becomes the decisive reference point.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.