Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the market's present inability to distinguish between temperature brackets—a common feature when settlement remains two years distant and historical data offers limited predictive power for a specific future date. The contract resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated systems or manual corrections produce discrepancies; traders should verify which data source Weather Underground prioritises for official records.

New York's August temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 88°F at LaGuardia, with extreme heat days (above 90°F) occurring roughly once every three to five years during the month. The 2022 heat dome pushed temperatures to 99°F on 7 August, whilst more typical August peaks range from 82°F to 86°F. Current climate patterns suggest no systematic shift in August extremes over the past decade, though individual years vary considerably based on Atlantic hurricane activity and jet stream positioning in early August.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal forecasting models released in June and July 2026, particularly NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks for temperature anomalies across the Northeast. Any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through spring 2026 could influence atmospheric circulation patterns. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts become actionable only in the final week before settlement, making early positioning speculative; liquidity on Polymarket's Polygon chain will likely remain thin until late July when conditional token pricing reflects emerging meteorological consensus.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.