Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Polymarket contract pricing this outcome at 0% YES reflects trader consensus that New York City's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will fall outside whichever range this particular bucket represents. Resolution hinges on the highest reading recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at LaGuardia Airport Station, measured in Fahrenheit—a distinction that matters, as the platform's Day High & Low summary sometimes diverges from granular observation data. Traders are effectively shorting this specific temperature band with near-certainty, implying confidence either that the day will be cooler or substantially hotter than the threshold this contract covers.

Historical August temperatures in New York provide calibration. The city's record high for any August day stands at 102°F, set in 1933, whilst typical August highs cluster between 82–86°F. The 2024 summer saw several days exceed 90°F across the Northeast, though LaGuardia specifically recorded a peak of 91°F on 20 August 2023. These patterns suggest most August 11ths produce readings in the mid-to-upper 80s, with occasional excursions into the low 90s during heat waves.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level ridge positioning through early August 2026, as tropical systems or persistent high-pressure domes can dramatically shift daily maxima. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically reliable 8–10 days out, will sharpen probability estimates in late July. Conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions resolve to either full USDC value or zero once Weather Underground publishes its official reading; no partial settlement occurs.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.