Highest temperature in Munich on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s highest temperature on 17 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any YES outcome in its binary framing, though the underlying temperature-range market shows 29°C as the frontrunner at 57% probability [1]. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing each temperature bracket; the 0% crowd-implied probability for a generic YES reflects the contract’s specific resolution logic rather than a belief that heat is impossible.

Historical July highs at Munich Airport Station typically cluster between 26°C and 31°C, with 29°C appearing frequently in recent warm spells, which aligns with the current 57% weighting for that bracket [1]. The 31% probability assigned to 28°C suggests the market sees a tight spread around the mid-to-high 20s, consistent with Bavarian summer patterns where cloud cover and humidity can cap peaks even during warm periods.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history page for the Munich Airport Station once 17 July closes, as resolution depends solely on the highest recorded temperature for all times that day [1]. No announcements or schedules will alter the outcome, but real-time weather feeds like AccuWeather show current conditions as mostly cloudy at 61°F (16°C) with 94% humidity, indicating a cool start that may limit afternoon peaks [2]. The settlement window ends at 2026-07-17T12:00:00Z, after which the Wunderground data will lock the result.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.