Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport Station will record its peak temperature for 15 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that reading. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract for any outcome at 0%, reflecting a crowd consensus that the event has already passed or the settlement conditions are unmet given the current date is 15 July 2026. On-chain mechanics on Polygon utilise USDC and conditional tokens to lock positions, yet the zero probability suggests traders see no viable path for a future resolution before the 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z deadline.

Historical data for mid-July in Munich typically shows highs between 24°C and 29°C, with 27°C and 26°C emerging as the frontrunners in active outcome markets at 37% and 35% respectively [1]. These figures frame the current 0% YES probability as a mispricing anomaly or a structural issue, since comparable years rarely deviate below 20°C. The spread between 26°C and 27°C indicates a tight distribution, suggesting that if the market were active, liquidity would concentrate heavily on these two ranges rather than extreme outliers.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history page for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) as the definitive resolution source, checking for any data gaps or station maintenance announcements that could delay the record [1]. The primary catalyst is the automatic data pull at the settlement window, which depends entirely on the station’s operational status and the absence of sensor errors. No external weather announcements will alter the outcome once the day concludes, making the dependency purely technical and tied to the integrity of the recorded hourly maximum.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.