Highest temperature in Munich on August 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this Munich temperature contract priced at 0% YES, which implies the market sees virtually no chance of the settlement band being reached from the current information. The event is straightforward: the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 23 August, taken from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, will determine the outcome, with the 12:00 UTC settlement window ending the morning of 23 August rather than the full local day.

That zero price sits well below Munich’s usual August profile. Long-run climate norms put the city around the low- to mid-20s Celsius for daytime highs, with plenty of variation and occasional spikes; recent August observations also show that Munich can briefly jump into the mid-30s during warm spells, as seen in mid-August reporting from Bavaria. For a USDC-denominated Polygon market built from conditional tokens, the practical read is that the contract is effectively discounting an ordinary late-summer outcome rather than a sharp heat event.

The main catalysts are the short-term forecast updates and whether a warm ridge, thunderstorms, or a cooler Atlantic flow dominates southern Germany over the final run-in. Traders will want the airport-specific forecast, not the city-centre summary, because the resolution source is the Daily Observations table, and small differences in station timing or recorded peak can matter. The key dependency is whether temperatures can lift above the relevant bracket before 12:00 UTC on 23 August, since later afternoon warmth will not count.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.