Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport's highest temperature reading on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's settlement, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either minimal liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will contain the day's peak. USDC positions on Polygon will settle conditionally once the official observation is recorded and verified against the primary data source.

August in Munich typically sees daytime highs between 23–27°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical precedent matters here: the city recorded 37.3°C on 25 June 2022 during an exceptional European heat event, and 36.5°C on 20 August 2012. These outliers suggest that whilst most August days cluster in the mid-20s, extreme readings remain within the realm of meteorological possibility. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either thin order books or a baseline expectation that August 2026 will follow typical seasonal patterns rather than exceptional conditions.

Weather forecasting accuracy degrades beyond ten days, so near-term catalysts matter less than mid-summer atmospheric patterns. Traders should monitor European weather models from early August 2026 for signs of high-pressure systems or Atlantic blocking patterns that could drive continental heat northward into Bavaria. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended forecasts that often precede Polymarket repricing, particularly if models converge on anomalous conditions. Airport station readings, being taken at a specific location rather than city-wide averages, can vary significantly from popular weather summaries—a technical detail that may affect settlement interpretation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.