Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Munich Airport Station temperature contract at **1% YES**, which on Polygon means the market is effectively saying there is only a thin chance the WETH/USDC-backed conditional tokens will settle in a higher temperature band than traders expect. The reference point is the **highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table**, not the summary Day High & Low box, so the trade is really about the station’s actual intraday peak in Celsius at the airport site rather than a headline forecast number. [3][19]

Munich’s August climate gives useful context for reading that price. Long-run city data show an average August high around **24–25°C**, but the month has produced far hotter outcomes, with record August highs around **37–38°C** and the specific 10 August climatology showing a record high near **35.9°C** in one compiled history set. That means a sub-30°C outcome is common, yet a sharply hotter spike is not exceptional in absolute terms, which is why a 1% implied chance is best read as a view that the station’s observed peak will stay well below the top bands. [1][5][16]

For traders, the key catalysts are the **daytime heating profile, cloud cover, and any thunderstorms** over Munich Airport before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off, because those factors decide whether the Daily Observations table prints a brief spike or a muted maximum. AccuWeather’s day forecast for Munich on 10 August pointed to **sunny to partly cloudy and very hot** conditions with **a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon**, which is exactly the sort of setup that can push the observed peak away from the morning consensus. Market participants should also remember that the contract resolves from a public weather archive, so the on-chain position only wins if the recorded table value lands in the specified range. [19][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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