Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, Miami International Airport will record its highest temperature for that date, measured against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than the summary high-low figures. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting traders are either awaiting settlement data or treating this as a placeholder contract pending liquidity. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon will resolve once the official observation from Miami Intl Airport Station is confirmed, with the winning band determined by precise temperature matching rather than rounded figures.

Historical August temperatures at Miami Intl Airport show considerable consistency, with daily highs typically clustering between 89–92°F during mid-August, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 95°F in past years. The 2012 heat wave saw Miami record 96°F on 13 August itself, whilst more recent Augusts have remained within the 88–91°F range. This historical distribution suggests the market's current zero probability across all bands may reflect data unavailability rather than genuine forecast consensus, since any realistic August day in Miami will necessarily produce a measurable high temperature.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the National Weather Service Miami forecast updates as August approaches, particularly any heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns that might drive temperatures above the 92°F threshold. The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table accuracy, making data availability the primary catalyst; any discrepancies between Weather Underground and NOAA official records could create settlement disputes, though the market documentation explicitly prioritises the Daily Observations source.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Miami on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.