Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official weather station for the capital. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either a technical issue with crowd pricing or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's peak reading. Settlement depends on historical data published by Weather Underground once the day concludes and meteorological records are finalised.

May temperatures in Mexico City cluster around 28–32°C at the airport station, with historical highs occasionally reaching 34–35°C during particularly warm years. The city's elevation of 2,250 metres moderates extremes compared to lower-altitude Mexican regions. Reviewing Wunderground's historical records for previous 25 May observations provides the most direct comparable baseline; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be waiting for clearer seasonal forecasts or recent weather pattern data before committing capital to specific temperature brackets.

The key dependency is the official forecast window closing on settlement date. Traders should monitor Mexico's National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) announcements in early May 2026 for seasonal outlooks and any anomalous weather systems. Polygon-based conditional token mechanics mean positions settle in USDC once Weather Underground publishes the final high temperature; the on-chain resolution oracle will match the published figure to the corresponding temperature range, determining which outcome token becomes redeemable.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.