Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, Mexico City's highest temperature will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport and fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or an expectation that settlement data will arrive after the window closes at 12:00 UTC. Traders holding conditional tokens representing specific temperature bands are effectively betting against the crowd's current indifference, with USDC collateral locked until Wunderground's historical weather data confirms the day's peak.

Mexico City's July climate is remarkably stable. Over the past two decades, maximum temperatures on 24 July have clustered between 24°C and 28°C, with the city's high altitude (2,250 metres) and rainy season dynamics moderating extremes. The 0% pricing across all ranges reflects a structural issue rather than meteorological uncertainty: the settlement window closes at midday, before the day's actual high is typically recorded. Traders must account for whether Wunderground's historical data—updated after 24 July concludes—will be accessible in time for resolution, or whether the market will face delays common to weather contracts with tight settlement windows.

The Mexican Meteorological Service issues forecasts for Mexico City through its official channels, though Wunderground's airport station data remains the binding source. Traders should monitor whether Polymarket extends the settlement window if data availability becomes contested, a precedent set in previous weather markets. Seasonal rainfall patterns on 24 July typically peak in late afternoon, which could suppress afternoon temperatures relative to morning readings.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.