Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026 is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome, with the crowd currently implying a 0% chance of the temperature falling into the specified range. On Polymarket, this contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the on-chain probability that the day’s peak heat will exceed the threshold. The market prices this as virtually impossible today, suggesting traders believe the meteorological conditions will not align with the resolution criteria.

Historically, June in Manila marks the start of the wet season, characterised by frequent rainfall and high humidity, which typically suppresses peak temperatures compared to the dry months of March and April[1]. The average high during this wet period ranges from 26°C to 31°C, rarely exceeding 32°C, whereas the hottest recorded temperature in Metro Manila reached 38.8°C in April 2024 at the same PAGASA station[4]. Given that June highs usually hover around 29°C to 31°C, the current 0% probability aligns with the seasonal trend that rain and cloud cover prevent extreme heat spikes[2][3].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and any announcements regarding tropical disturbances, as incoming rain systems could further lower temperatures below the threshold[1]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded high for the Ninoy Aquino station, making the timing of cloud cover and precipitation on 30 June critical[5]. Recent reports of Metro Manila hitting a 45°C heat index highlight the potential for extreme conditions, yet June’s specific climatic profile makes such peaks unlikely without a significant, unforecasted weather anomaly[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.