Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0% today, implying traders see virtually no chance the temperature will exceed the threshold set for this outcome, despite July typically delivering afternoon highs between 31°C and 35°C in the city [7].

Historical data frames this near-zero probability: Manila’s early July highs cluster tightly around 32°C to 34°C, with the Philippines’ official record of 42.2°C occurring in Tuguegarao in April and May, not Manila in July [2][4]. Recent local readings show the highest temperature in the past 15 days was 94.8°F (35.0°C) on 3 July, while yesterday’s maximum was only 88°F (31.1°C), reinforcing the pattern of moderate July heat [1][3].

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground report for RPLL (Ninoy Aquino Airport) as the sole resolution source, watching for any unseasonal heat spikes or data anomalies before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline. No weather announcements or climate schedules currently suggest an extreme event; the dependency remains purely on the observed maximum temperature recorded at the station, with USDC trades on Polygon executing via conditional tokens until resolution [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.