Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is currently pricing Manila’s August 10 temperature peak as extremely unlikely to land in the higher bands, with the crowd-implied probability for **YES at 0%** and the market still settling through USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens. The real-world event is the highest recorded temperature at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, measured from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, so intraday revisions matter until the following day’s first datapoint is published.[14]

The historical setup argues for a muted ceiling rather than a sharp afternoon spike. Forecast services for Manila show a wet, humid day with showers or thunderstorms and highs around 28–32°C, while PAGASA’s outlook for Metro Manila cites occasional rains under the southwest monsoon, which is typically a drag on extreme daytime highs.[2][4][10][12] That leaves the market’s key question less about whether it gets warm, and more about whether cloud cover and rain suppress the final airport observation enough to keep the top reading in the lower 30s or below.[14]

For traders, the main catalysts are the timing and quality of Weather Underground’s hourly updates, plus any short-term changes in PAGASA’s city outlook or local thunderstorm guidance.[10][12][14] The settlement cutoff is tied to 12:00 UTC, but the contract resolves on the full-day observation record, so the practical watchlist is the airport station feed itself, not headlines. If rainfall persists through the afternoon, the upside case weakens; if skies briefly clear and winds ease, a 30°C-plus print becomes more plausible even in a monsoon pattern.[2][11][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.