Highest temperature in Madrid on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is still pricing this Madrid airport temperature contract at 0% YES, which on-chain means the conditional tokens attached to the USDC- and Polygon-settled market are effectively valuing a sub-12:00 UTC high of 22°C or above as a remote outcome. That is notable because the historical context for Madrid in late May is warmer than that headline implies, but not by much: typical May highs are around the low 20s Celsius, with lows in the high single digits to low teens, and the month often stays dry. For the specific station in question, the relevant number is the day’s highest reading at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport before the settlement window closes, not the city’s broader afternoon peak.

The comparable cases matter because Madrid can warm quickly once the sun is up, yet airport stations are sensitive to timing, wind and cloud cover. Weather summaries for May generally put Madrid around 21°C by day, with highs often in the low 20s and rainfall limited, while recent historical and climate pages point to a normal late-spring pattern rather than a heat event. In practical terms, a 0% price means traders are treating the required threshold as either already unlikely to be reached in the morning window or not supported by the latest forecast track, rather than assuming a broader citywide warm day.

Catalysts are straightforward: updated hourly observations from the airport, any late forecast revision from major forecasters, and the exact time the day’s maximum is recorded before 12:00 UTC. Barajas sits at about 667 metres above sea level, so temperature can still lift sharply after sunrise, but once the midday cutoff passes the market is fixed by the highest official reading already logged. The key dependency is therefore not a dramatic weather headline, but whether the early-day climb is enough to clear the threshold before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Madrid on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.