Highest temperature in London on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the London City Airport Station will record its highest temperature in degrees Celsius, a single data point that determines whether the market settles YES or NO. The crowd-implied probability sits at 76% YES, suggesting traders expect the peak to land within the target range, likely between 28°C and 32°C given current seasonal norms.

Historical patterns for late June at EGLC show average daily highs around 24°C, but heatwaves have pushed readings past 30°C in recent years, including a notable 38°C spike in 2022 that broke the June record. The Met Office has flagged 39°C as a potential headline maximum for late June in similar conditions, indicating that the current 76% probability is conservative relative to extreme outliers, though consistent with moderate summer warmth [9].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s daily 5-day forecast updates and the National Weather Service’s real-time observations for EGLC, as southerly winds and falling pressure (currently 1012mb) often precede temperature spikes [2]. Any announcement of a high-pressure system moving over the UK from the south-east could act as a catalyst, pushing temperatures toward the upper bound of the range; the resolution source, Wunderground, will publish the first data point only after the settlement window closes, making on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon (settled in USDC) the primary mechanism for exposure [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.