Highest temperature in London on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 22 June 2026 is currently priced at 0% probability for any range above 30°C, reflecting the market’s view that extreme heat is unlikely today. On-chain, this Polymarket contract trades in USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens allow traders to bet on specific temperature bands without exposing capital to the underlying weather event. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 22 June 2026, with Wunderground serving as the official resolution source for the day’s peak temperature.

Historically, late June in London rarely exceeds 30°C at EGLC, with the warm season averaging highs just above 67°F (19.4°C) from mid-June onward[3]. While June 2023 saw the UK’s warmest June on record and 2017 Heathrow hit 34.5°C on 21 June[9], these were outliers tied to broader heatwaves, not typical for EGLC. The current 0% YES probability aligns with this pattern, as today’s forecast shows a maximum of 28–30°C[1][4], well below the thresholds that would trigger a payout.

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s evening update on thundery showers moving east, which could suppress temperatures further[4]. Additionally, the southerly wind at 8 mph and 88% humidity[1] suggest limited solar heating, reducing the chance of a spike. No major climate announcements are scheduled, but the National Weather Service’s hourly data for EGLC[2] will provide real-time validation. With conditions stable and no catalysts for extreme heat, the market’s pricing remains factually grounded.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.