Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, Istanbul Airport will record its highest temperature for that calendar date, measured in Celsius and reported through NOAA's meteorological station at Atatürk International Airport (LTFM). The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting either insufficient liquidity or a technical settlement constraint—the market description notes it cannot resolve until the full day's data is finalised across all hours. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon are effectively waiting for NOAA's historical data feed to populate before any outcome becomes determinable.

Istanbul's late May climate sits in a predictable band. Historical records show maximum temperatures on 25 May typically range between 24°C and 28°C, with occasional excursions toward 30°C during warmer years. The city's Mediterranean-influenced continental climate produces consistent late-spring warming, though the specific daily high depends on synoptic patterns—whether Atlantic low-pressure systems bring cooler air or Saharan ridges drive heat northward. May 2024 saw Istanbul reach 27°C on the 25th; May 2023 peaked at 26°C the same date.

The settlement mechanism depends entirely on NOAA's automated station uploads and historical record completion. No weather forecasts or announcements will alter the outcome once the date passes; the contract simply waits for the data to be archived and accessible via the NOAA time-series portal. Traders cannot influence resolution through market activity—only the actual atmospheric conditions and NOAA's reporting schedule determine when this contract becomes actionable.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.