Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston will experience its peak daily heat on 15 July 2026 at William P. Hobby Airport, with the market betting on which Fahrenheit range captures that maximum. Today, Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd sees no chance the temperature will fall within the specific range defined for this contract, likely because the range is implausibly low for mid-summer in the Gulf Coast.

Historically, mid-July highs at KHOU routinely exceed 90°F, often reaching 95–100°F, making any range below 90°F statistically negligible. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show consistent peaks above 94°F, reinforcing why the current probability sits at zero; traders treating this as a weather bet rather than a token arbitrage would dismiss the YES side immediately.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for Houston and real-time readings from Wunderground’s KHOU station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or humidity could alter the peak, though late-July heatwaves in Texas are predictable. The on-chain mechanics—USDC settlement on Polygon via conditional tokens—ensure transparent resolution once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum, with no room for post-hoc adjustment.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on July 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.